Blog Archives
Math and Psychological Factors
Mathematical Strategies to Winning No-Limit Texas Hold’em shows players how a changing deck alters familiar odds and how to turn those calculations into decisions at the table. What first led you to question the ideal probability model?
I have watched several videos and read many books which analyzes poker probability, and felt that the stated probabilities seemed much higher than what would be expected, from a mathematical viewpoint. Upon reverse engineering several of these probabilities, I have concluded that the ideal model always assumes that the round is played with ten players and that every ‘out’ is still expected to be in the deck. This is a best-case scenario and rarely occurs in real life. As more pocket hands are dealt, the probability that a desired ‘out’ may be dealt to another player or serve as a burn card increases, removing the probability of it appearing on ‘the board’. But, if you assume that these ‘outs’ are still in the deck, there is an increased probability that they will appear on ‘the board’ due to the smaller number of cards remaining in the deck. On the other hand, for only a few players, the probability that an ‘out’ still remains in the deck is higher, but the probability of it appearing on ‘the board’ is reduced due to a larger number of cards remaining in the deck. This is the effect of transient analysis on the remaining deck. These modified probabilities help the player assess the strength of their own hand as well as that of an opponent’s, thereby allowing them to make better decisions at the table.
How did you decide which depleted-deck calculations belonged in the quick-reference tables and which readers needed to work through in detail?
The book is written as both a math thesis as well as a playing guide. All of the equations are discussed to assist the reader in understanding the reasoning behind the calculations, and to make rough approximations at the table as needed. But they are generally way too complicated to compute during a game. Therefore, they have all been automatically computed and presented in table form for easy reference. These tables are not intended for the player to memorize immense data, but to get a general idea of the probabilities that an ‘out’ will appear on the flop, turn, or river based upon the number of dealt hands. As most players prefer to play the players rather than the cards, the quick reference tables are easily referenced to help the player make the best decision.
When your advanced model suggests a different play from conventional outs calculations, how should players weigh opponent behavior and position?
Poker is not played by mathematical probabilities alone, but through a variety of math and psychological factors. If a player is acting as if they hold a superior hand, they either truly do or are bluffing their way to win the pot. In this scenario, you can examine the board in an attempt to predict which ‘outs’ may be in an opponent’s pocket hand and make your call, fold, or raise decision based upon probabilities that those ‘outs’ are still expected to be within the deck or dealt to the player. Position dictates when it is your turn to act. The value of your pocket hand and your position is the first important decision a player must make. Marginal hands are best played in late position and conservatively, while the best hands are generally played aggressively. This tactic, however, may be altered throughout the game to catch the other players off-guard.
Which assumptions in your advanced model are most sensitive to missing information, and how might players adapt as opponents’ ranges become clearer?
Players generally make big calls and bets when they believe that they hold the superior hand (or wish to portray that image in a bluff). Obviously, the betting ranges are not stated specifically, as that is dependent upon each player’s risk tolerance. Although the tables of pre-calculated probabilities can aid each player in determining the probabilities of his hand winning as well as that of his opponent(s), he must make a risk/reward decision during each betting round.
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Designed as a practical guide for the Texas Hold’em player, as well as a research thesis for math enthusiasts, this book gives sound mathematical advice on how to play your best game.
The beginner to advanced Texas Hold’em players will learn how to judge the strength of their hand against the potential strength of an opponent’s hand from a mathematical perspective. Then, using pre-calculated probability tables, reference expected results to give insight into how to best play their hand during each round.
Math enthusiasts will be introduced to a new and advanced model that computes poker probabilities more accurately. This new model considers the probabilities that an out (a card needed to make or improve their hand) remains within the deck, was dealt to another player, or serves as a burn (discarded) card.
This informative book introduces the reader to the basics of Texas Hold’em poker, hand derivations, the effects of a depleted deck, how to pick your best pocket hands, and how to play your hand during each round using sound probability analysis.
Gaming and Death
Karen Glista Author Interview
Embellished is a relentlessly entertaining fantasy novel following a trio of teens as they are catapulted into a video game. What was the inspiration for the setup to this exciting novel?
I truly love online gaming and at one point I was thinking how awesome it would be to visit those antiquated worlds. I am also an R.N. and in my career, I have come face to face with death, more times than I care to admit. I love to write…its who I am, and on one particular day, for no credible reason, my mind which often times reverts to fantasy in lieu of reality, merged gaming and death and thus…Chronicles of Orian was born.
Bekka’s body is crippled by a disease, but in the game, she is whole again, but still has to find her voice and strength. How did you set about creating Bekka’s character?
Bekka created herself. I simply pictured a young patient in my mind and as amazing as it may be, she took a deep breath and exhaled. I saw her, but it was not just a vision…I felt her sorrow. She was commanding of attention and as strange as it may sound, I simply scribbled what was happening, her responses to the environment, her heart, her needs, her pain and above all else, her intense desire to love and be loved. She’s an incredible young woman and unto the end (book 3 in the trilogy) with only faith as her weapon she faces evilness even death, not only to forge her own destiny, but to protect those she loves. I so admire her.
What I enjoyed more than the deeply complex characters is the intricately woven plot with twists that I rarely saw coming. Did you plan the novel ahead of time or did the twists develop organically?
I do not use outlines. I simply sit at my computer…locked away from the world while the scenes play in my mind.
It seems like you had a lot of fun writing this book; did you?
I laughed and I cried but it was an incredible journey. I loved it and to be honest, I fell in love.
This is book one in the Chronicles of Orian series. Where does book 2 take readers?
Extolled, book two in the Chronicles of Orian trilogy is the continuing saga of Randar and Bekka who find themselves front and center as worlds collide, earth is ravaged by war and Orian is beleaguered by a humanoid race intent on world domination. Besieged by hated, lies, betrayal and grotesque horrors, battle lines are drawn and unexpectedly Bekka finds herself once more visited by her past…only this time her antiquated disease has an ugly twist, one that will affect not only her, but the daughter she lost so many years ago.
From the depths of blood and gore in a now seemingly doomed society, a forbidden love takes root. Audra, Bekka’s long lost daughter, now sixteen and incredibly naive, falls prey to a grotesque monster lurking behind the outrageously handsome face of a shape-shifting beast called Mardrid. Ordered to seduce her…or die, Mardrid finds himself helter-skelter for the very nearness of her warm, curvaceous body ignites such a dire and primal need to feed that maintaining his human persona is all but impossible. He quickly realizes he is playing a deadly game…one he may not win.
As secrets are revealed and truths are realized the drums of war echo throughout the land. Family turns against family, friends against friends and as the Scaff invasions and their insatiable lust for flesh intensifies, every faction in Orian is pushed to the brink of extinction. Few, if any, will survive and against all odds there will be blood…there will be sorrow…there will be gnashing of teeth.
Randar, who refuses to capitulate, gathers what’s left of the living outside of Uldrame for one last stand. With defeat, imminent and their backs to the wall, Randar gambles his life as well as those he loves on one last hope.
Can the heart of a naive young girl sway the face of death? Can Orian be saved…or is it already too late?
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When hunky, eighteen-year-old Travis Kurth lures his sister Bekka to assist him and his friends in an online game, he has no idea that all their lives are about to change… forever. Ripped from reality by an elemental force of nature, the party of five soon wake in a beautiful, but dangerous, new world called Orian.
Bekka, who is suffering from a genetic disease, the same malady that killed their mother, finds herself in complete remission, but there’s little time to celebrate as one, then another of their party falls prey to this unforgiving land.
Rescued from death by a battalion of human soldiers under the leadership of Vallas Onisquase, Crown Prince of Adosarath, Bekka discovers that in Orian refuge comes at a steep price. The arrogant, dangerously handsome Vallas, beguiled by Bekka’s beauty, sets in motion a plan to make her his own, but the royal entourage falls under attack by a blood-thirsty humanoid faction called Vadarcs.
Abducted, Bekka finds herself deep in Vadarc territory with no chance of rescue. Leashed like an animal, abused, humiliated and placed on an auction block, she is purchased by blood and gold to become the property of Randar Ataurik, a humanoid, tusked, barbarian, Vadarc prince.
Vallas who is obsessed with his newly betrothed, demands her return but Randar, in the long held tradition of Vadarcs, has bound her by blood.
As the winds of war sweep the land, Bekka finds herself in a deadly triangle.
Embellished is the first book in an epic, paranormal romance.
